The collapse in oil prices could undermine efforts to reduce pollution, which is cited as a cause of climate change. This is one of the conclusions of the International Energy Agency IEA in its annual analysis of energy markets, quoted by Bloomberg.
If crude oil prices remain around $ 50 per barrel by the end of the decade, cheap conventional fuels will lead to a delay in the development of electric cars and biofuels that help reduce carbon emissions. According to IEA this scenario will lead to a loss of 800 billion. Dollar investment in increasing the efficiency of the engines.
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These findings emphasize the complexity of the task of the UN to ensure the conclusion of a landmark deal to curb emissions by the end of the year. While lower oil prices help the world economy, they also increase competitive pressures on new technologies for renewable energy sources.
Crivat in oil prices compared to their peak levels of 140 dollars per barrel in 2008, coupled with cheaper and coal and natural gas. These fuels are a major competitor in the production of electricity renewable sources such as wind and sunlight. Cheapest gasoline in turn undermines the position of biofuels, says IEA. The strongest is expected to be the impact on energy efficiency efforts, which will take a long time to pay low prices for fossil fuels. According to the IEA these measures are important to overall energy consumption and enable the disconnect between the volume of carbon emissions and economic activity.
According to the forecast of the agency energy consumption will grow by one third between 2013 and 2040, but the relationship between growth and pollution will become weaker. China and India joined the United States and the European Union in the implementation of energy efficiency measures. With this state, following such a policy, reaching one-third of all from 3% in 2005
"Low oil prices alone will not have a major effect on the implementation of technologies for renewable energy, but only if politicians continue to apply the necessary market rules, policies and subsidies," says IEA. According to estimates by the agency RES was responsible for almost half of investment in energy production last year and will surpass coal as the main source of electricity after 2030 are expected by 2040 renewable energy can achieve a share of 50% in the EU 30% China and Japan and 25% in the US and India.
According to the IEA these investments should help increase the average temperature to be limited to 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This is more than implied by the UN target of 2 degrees, but less than the forecasts of scientists likely rise by 4 degrees.